The gains made prior to the Fed meeting were wiped out by Bitcoin, which briefly traded back below the $90,000 threshold the following day and touched the close on Friday. Before selling pressure eased, the drawdown from Wednesday’s highs reached roughly -5.5%. The market had already priced in the most recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. While labour market data continues to soften and inflation pressures remain uneven, what unsettled markets was not the decision itself but the growing perception that monetary policy is becoming increasingly politicized. Few administrations have exerted such open pressure on the Fed’s decision-making process, even during previous economic crises. This shift matters. As confidence in the institutional independence of monetary policy is eroding, bond markets are beginning to reflect a longer-tail risk through higher US rates. Rate cuts are now seen as outcomes shaped by political compromise rather than as solely technocratic responses to macro conditions. Short-term pressure eases
Onchain data indicates that short-term pressure has eased following the sharp November spike as event-driven volatility has diminished. The fact that measures of short-term holder stress have returned to normal levels suggests that the majority of reactive selling has already taken place. The spot price is within close proximity of a crucial inflection point because short-term holders’ cost basis is currently compressing around the psychological $100,000 level. Bitcoin has previously traded below this threshold for prolonged periods, emulating the unwind that followed the trade war. These periods were characterized by choppy, range-bound price action and repeated attempts by leveraged participants to time local tops and bottoms. Structural momentum typically resumes once the price decisively reclaims the short-term cost basis.
Distribution to reabsorption of capital The delta of realized capitalization captures whether capital is entering or exiting the network: positive readings signal net cost-basis expansion, while negative prints reflect seller-dominated conditions.
